The Puerto Vallarta/Riviera Nayarit real estate market has experienced remarkable growth over the past ten years, both physically - expanding outwards and inland from the downtown core of Vallarta, and economically - with both real estate sales and condominium prices increasing significantly. But prior to this run-up, from the years 2008-2016, market activity and sales prices actually fell, brought on by the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown that caused a global financial crisis. Local markets are especially sensitive to what happens in the US and Canada so as real estate tanked there, so it did in Puerto Vallarta. In order to best put this ten-year interval of real estate activity into proper perspective, it’s worth looking back at what transpired in the years leading up to this period.
Pre-2008
Before 2008, the market was overwhelmingly developer-driven, offering new construction with fancy new features coveted by new buyers - over 130 projects were under development around the bay. This trend started in about 2003, facilitated by a booming US/Canada real estate market that allowed homeowners to use the newly appreciated value of their homes to purchase a second one somewhere warm and exotic, like Vallarta and Nayarit. Older properties that lacked the glitzy add-ons became difficult to sell. As well, many of these new projects were now being built along the shoreline, (previously the domain of hotels), offering beachfront access and spectacular views, primarily in the Hotel Zone and Nuevo Vallarta, but also on the hillside behind Vallarta in Amapas and Conchas Chinas. It was an amazing period as real estate was selling as fast as developers could build it, in some cases selling out before construction had even begun.
Post-2008
After the “crash” buyer sentiment shifted from new, under-construction units to already existing resale properties because of buyer’s legitimate concerns whether developers would have the funds to finish their projects. Because of low demand developers stopped building or greatly downscaled, some remaining unfinished for years. Real estate sales and sales volume dropped significantly, as did the price of real estate. The average sales price of a condominium dropped by more than 20%. Prices had been driven up by demand with developers basically able to ask whatever they wanted. But that swiftly came to an end. And it somewhat stayed that way until about 2015. Buying continued, but at much slower pace.
When developers did return to the market they were conservative, choosing to build smaller projects (less units - less investment), of smaller, lower-priced units with less features, (although rooftop pools did become a trend), and situated closer to downtown Vallarta. Matter of fact right in the heart of Vallarta, behind Los Muertos Beach. Few offered views but the price was right and the downtown core, which had been neglected during the past boom years, became trendy. Another area was the immediate South Shore, below Conchas Chinas, where older estate homes were torn down and condominium tower projects started going up.
In 2015, 55% of all real estate sales were taking place in Central Vallarta South or the South Shore. In comparison, by 2025 they accounted for just 26% of overall sales in the Vallarta/Nayarit region.
2015-2025
So now with an understanding of what had transpired previous to 2015, we can take a look at what has happened since then. In 2015 the market was still in recovery mode and would not begin to recover until 2017. Sales volume was down considerably from what it was in 2008 and the average condominium sales price had dropped, as mentioned, by more than 20%.
Sales continued to increase but at a slow pace until 2017 when the number of sales and value of the sales increase by over 40%. Sales would continue to climb until COVID came along in 2020, which precipitated a nearly 20% fall in activity. The fall was short-lived, however, with sales quickly recovering in 2021, plateauing for a couple of years, before another great year, the highest to date, recorded in 2025.
It should be noted that the increase in sales over this period of time can also be partially attributed to two trends: first, more and more developers were joining the MLS systems and reporting sales. In the past the MLS had been used mostly for re-sales and small developers, but after 2017 more of the larger projects were joining as well. Secondly, real estate offices in the outlying regions were beginning to join. These two actions alone were instrumental in an increase in sales and sales volume.
- Over this ten-year period gross sales volume increased by 400% while the number of sales increased by 300%.
- The average price of a condominium in 2015 was $310,000 while in 2025 it was $490,000 - appreciating by nearly 60%.
- But the increase in value was not evenly felt throughout all regions. Top honors went to Central North where prices rose an amazing 150%, followed by Central South and the Hotel Zone, where prices doubled over this ten-year period.
- The South Shore and Central Vallarta South (South of the Cuale River) accounted for 55% marketshare in 2015 while down to 26% in 2025.
- Sales in outlying areas such as Mezcal’s, Jarretaderas, Pitillal, Aramark and Sayulita/San Pancho accounted for less than 2% of sales in 2015. By 2025 this had increased to 13% of all sales in the region as buyers started looking outside Vallarta for lower prices.
- The Francisco Villa region, (which includes the popular Versalles neighborhood), accounted for only 2% of overall market sales in 2015. By 2025 it was over 10% as again, buyers looked for lower prices and less congestion.
- Central Vallarta North (North of the Cuale River to the Hotel Zone) which accounted for just 5% of sales in 2015, doubled to over 10% by 2025. As Central South became built-out, interest moved to the other side of the river.
2026
Today, entering 2026, it’s a market somewhat similar to that last boom back in 2003-2008 with real estate developments going up all around the bay and a strong demand for new product. The frenzy isn’t as great, but there are similarities. Where we are in that cycle is not certain, and does not necessarily mean that there could be anything like what happened in 2007-2008. The point being that we are in a very active market that is seeing considerable growth with new developments underway around the bay and into Riviera Nayarit. Marina Vallarta became popular for development again with the last remaining vacant lots seeing condominium towers going up. Versalles has become extremely popular, as with Bucerias, which always been popular but now is seeing tall condo towers going up along the beach and main avenue. And there’s many projects in development on the North Shore of the bay and up into Costa Nayarit.
These two pie charts visually show how the market has evolved over the past ten years. Although it may be hard to follow the color schemes, just looking at the difference of the two images alone says a lot. The market in 2015 was overwhelmingly concentrated in just a few regions. Central South and the South Shore accounted for 55% of all sales. When combined with Nuevo Vallarta it added up to over 70%. Meanwhile, in 2025, these three regions accounted for just 35% of overall sales. The market in 2025 is much more evenly distributed amongst many regions. “Others” stands for secondary and new market regions, such as Mezcal’s, Jarretaderas, Pitillal, Airport and Aramara, and in 2015 they made up less than 1% of all sales. By 2025 they were accounting for 14% of all sales.
The graph above helps explain why there has been such a shift to these new markets - sales prices are half what they are in the traditional, primary markets.
The graph above shows what the average sales price has been for a condominium over the past 20 years. Going back another ten years allows us to see how sales prices dropped after 2007 by over 20%, not fully recovering for another ten years. In 2017 the average sales price began to rise, rather quickly, and by 2025 the average sales price of a condominium had gone up by 80%. Not a bad return over eight years.
2025 finished up very strong, with sales and volume up substantially from previous years. Can the trend continue? As always, it’s very dependent on what is happening north of the border. 2026 didn’t start well with cartel violence Vallarta experienced in February. But that died down very quickly and real estate activity, as reported by agents and developers, remains strong.
The graphs below exemplify how outside events affect the market. Sales dropped in 2020 because of COVID, but recovered very quickly once COVID was under control. The market actually over-corrected, creating a lull in the market, before taking off again in 2025. The drop in 2024 could be partially attributed to it being an election year in the U.S, which typically happens as potential buyers hold back until they know the results. Who knows what affect the market looking forward, but we can identify a trend from these graphs - sales have continued increase over the years and will most likely continue to.
